In a hypothetical 2024 contest, a study published on Tuesday found that young registered voters support former President Donald Trump over President Joe Biden.
The study, conducted by Siena and published in the New York Times, revealed that registered voters aged 18–29, 49% would choose Trump if an election were to be held today, while 43% would choose Biden. In contrast, 47% of likely voters in Trump’s age bracket favored Biden. This disparity mirrored the general pattern of the survey, which showed that Trump had a two-point lead over Biden among registered voters and that Biden had a similar lead over Trump among potential voters.
The president’s poll numbers have been bleak since the beginning of November, showing him losing against Trump nationally and in swing states.
According to a Wall Street Journal survey published earlier this month, Trump had a four-point edge over Biden in a head-to-head battle and a six-point lead when third-party candidates were added. On the other hand, if Trump were to get a criminal conviction, the survey showed that Biden would defeat Trump by one point on a vote with just those two candidates.
The Siena survey had a margin of error of 3.5% overall and 3.7% among likely voters based on a sample size of 1,016 registered voters.
The results showed that only 37% of people were satisfied with Biden’s performance as president, while 58% were not. Only 39% of potential voters favored it, while 57% were against it. While both candidates had similar net favorability ratings among potential voters, Trump commanded more registered votes.
In the most recent edition of the Harvard Institute of Politics Youth Poll, a margin of 5 percentage points separates former President Trump from President Joe Biden in terms of young voters’ perceptions of Trump’s ability to handle the Israel-Hamas War.
The poll, which questioned 2,098 young Americans, adds another roadblock to Biden’s re-election prospects by showing that his popularity among young voters has declined significantly since the IOP’s youth poll in the spring of 2020.
There has been a steady fall in the popularity of Biden’s presidency since his 2020 election, with only 35% of young people expressing approval.