A failed Soviet spacecraft from the Cold War era is heading toward Earth with a chance of surviving reentry, as experts track its descent path and evaluate potential risks to populated areas.
At a Glance
- Kosmos 482, a Soviet satellite launched in 1972, is expected to make an uncontrolled reentry into Earth’s atmosphere around May 10, 2025
- The descent module weighs 1,091 pounds and may survive reentry due to its heat shield designed for Venus’ harsher atmosphere
- While the landing zone is unpredictable, experts say most likely it will land in an ocean with extremely low odds of hitting populated areas
- If damage occurs, the Russian government would be liable under international space treaties
- The probability of the satellite hitting a person is approximately one in 10,000, as most of Earth is unpopulated
Cold War Space Relic Returns
Kosmos 482, originally launched by the Soviet Union on March 31, 1972, is approaching its final descent after 53 years in Earth’s orbit. The spacecraft was intended to be part of the Venera program, designed as a sister probe to Venera 8, which successfully landed on Venus later that same year. However, a malfunction in the rocket booster left Kosmos 482 stranded in Earth orbit, creating what would become one of the longest-orbiting pieces of potential space debris.
While the main body of Kosmos 482 fell back to Earth in 1981 and likely burned up upon reentry, the descent module remained in space. This module, weighing 1,091 pounds (495 kg), is what scientists are now tracking as it prepares for an uncontrolled reentry. The landing window is currently projected between May 7 and May 13, 2025, with satellite trackers continuously monitoring its descent to refine these predictions.
Survival Risk Factors
Unlike most satellites that disintegrate upon reentry, Kosmos 482 presents a unique concern. The descent module was specifically engineered to withstand the extreme conditions of Venus’ atmosphere, which is far more hostile than Earth’s. This robust construction could enable it to survive the journey through our atmosphere intact, creating the possibility of a hard impact.
“As this is a lander that was designed to survive passage through the Venus atmosphere, it is possible that it will survive reentry through the Earth atmosphere intact, and impact intact,” said Marco Langbroek, an astronomer who specializes in satellite tracking.
The module is expected to reenter at approximately 150 mph (242 km/h), similar to a meteorite. While it was originally equipped with a parachute system for a controlled landing on Venus, experts believe this system will not function after decades in space. With a projected end velocity exceeding 145 miles per hour, the impact would be comparable to a car falling from the sky.
Landing Zone Predictions
The potential impact zone for Kosmos 482 spans between 52 degrees north and 52 degrees south latitude, covering parts of Europe, Asia, the Americas, Africa, and Australia. This broad range makes precise predictions challenging, but statistics favor an ocean landing, as water covers approximately 71% of Earth’s surface within this latitude band.
“With an orbital inclination of 52 degrees, the Kosmos 482 Descent Craft could come down anywhere between 52 degrees north and 52 degrees south latitude,” Langbroek explained.
Harvard astronomer and astrophysicist Jonathan McDowell has reassured the public about the minimal threat. “If you land something in a random part of the Earth, the chance that it hits a person is about one in 10,000,” he said. “The chance that it hits you is then one in 10 billion — smaller than that. You do not have to lose any sleep over this.” This assessment reflects both the vastness of unpopulated areas on Earth and the relatively small size of the spacecraft component.
Legal and Future Implications
Should Kosmos 482 cause damage or injuries upon its return, responsibility would fall to Russia as the successor state to the Soviet Union. International space law, particularly the 1972 Space Liability Convention, establishes that launching nations remain liable for their space objects regardless of when they return to Earth.
“If this were to cause damage — or worse, to hurt someone — that would be something that the Russian government would be liable for,” McDowell noted.
This incident highlights the broader issue of space debris, with approximately 3,000 dead satellites currently orbiting Earth. Recent incidents of space debris reaching the ground include a Samsung satellite found in Michigan and debris from the International Space Station discovered in Florida. Scientists are exploring remediation strategies, including “space garbage trucks” designed to collect and safely dispose of orbital debris, aiming to reduce similar uncontrolled reentries in the future.
