In the upcoming primaries, Nikki Haley and Donald Trump are gearing up to compete for Republican voters’ support. Haley, a former United Nations ambassador, and South Carolina governor, has positioned herself as a more electable candidate than Trump, emphasizing the need for new leadership in the party.
A memo from the Koch Network, which previously supported Haley, expressed doubts about Trump’s potential to succeed in a general election. It raised the possibility that Trump might be defeated by President Joe Biden, particularly under the circumstance of a conviction in his current legal proceedings. Nonetheless, Trump continues to assert his innocence in all these matters.
While some polls indicate that Haley may have stronger numbers against Biden in a general election, many still show Trump leading the race. Recent YouGov polling conducted among likely voters from January 10 to 12 found Trump ahead of Biden by two percentage points nationwide. The margin of error for the poll was plus or minus 2.5 percentage points, with 50 percent of respondents favoring Trump and 48 percent backing Biden.
In the 2020 presidential election, Biden won against Trump with a nationwide margin of 4.5 percentage points, leading to a 306 to 232 victory in the Electoral College. Biden’s slim wins in key battleground states such as Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin played a significant role in his triumph.
In the same YouGov poll, Haley performed even better than Trump against Biden, leading by eight percentage points and earning 53 percent support from respondents. Biden received 45 percent in this hypothetical matchup.
Surveys in key battleground states suggest that Trump is ahead of Biden. In Arizona, a VCreek/AMG poll of 694 likely voters conducted from December 1 to 8 showed Trump with a 5-point lead, garnering 46 percent support against Biden’s 41 percent. A poll by The Detroit News and WDIV-TV in Michigan revealed Trump leading by 8 points, receiving 47 percent support compared to Biden’s 39 percent. Similarly, a CNN poll in Georgia involving 1,068 registered voters indicated Trump is ahead by five percentage points, with 49 percent favoring Trump against 44 percent for Biden.
Haley’s performance in swing states also demonstrates a promising lead over Biden. The VCreek/AMG poll showed Haley with a significant lead and more uncertainty in Arizona. Thirty-seven percent of respondents said they would vote for Haley, while 30 percent backed Biden. In Michigan, Haley secured a 10-point lead over Biden, with 44 percent supporting her and 34 percent supporting Biden. In Georgia, Haley led by 6 points, earning support from 49 percent of respondents compared to Biden’s 43 percent, according to the CNN poll.
