(PresidentialHill.com)- It is a conflict for control of the Donbas area of eastern Ukraine, where Russia has backed separatist rebels. Russia may concentrate its troops in the east and advance toward conflicts where their superior artillery and air force can be deployed. The Donbas is Russia’s most eastern territory, ranging from Luhansk to Mariupol in the north to Mariupol in the south. Taking control of the region’s south would provide a Russian-controlled corridor linking Crimea to Russia.
There are compelling reasons for Russia to prioritize the Donbas region, which borders Russia and southern Ukraine. Russia’s military emphasis has changed from combat operations in Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, to fighting in and around the Donbas area. The change underscores Russia’s failure to grab Kyiv and destabilize the government in a single blow. Russia’s primary goal is to shut Ukraine’s soldiers off from the rest of the nation in the area. This strategy avoids many of the issues Russian soldiers have encountered in the Kyiv area.
It primarily entails taking open ground from the Ukrainians rather than engaging in urban combat. If Russia can regain control of the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, it will be able to claim that it has accomplished a pre-war goal of preventing genocide.
Since 2014, Ukraine’s Joint Forces have been fighting in the Donbas. Analysts think Ukraine might deploy a larger army than Russia.
Ukraine’s people are engaged in the conflict, resulting in a big pool of ready combatants. Evidence from the battlefield reveals a Russian army with poor morale. When confronted with Ukrainian resistance, demoralized Russian troops are more inclined to flee. If Russia manages to acquire considerable additional land in the Donbas or impose complete authority over Mariupol, the benefits are unlikely to exceed the drawbacks. Sanctions have harmed the Russian economy, and they’re likely to worsen in the coming weeks.
Europe has banded together against Russia, with Switzerland, a traditionally neutral country, supporting the sanctions and Sweden and Finland drawing closer to NATO. The more effective Russia’s campaign in the Donbas is, the simpler it will be for Putin to pitch his conflict as a win. Another humiliating Russian defeat might have significant consequences for Russia’s geopolitical posture. Zelenskyy would have the upper hand in peace talks and might get parameters that would allow greater security and integration with the West.