What has long been considered a Republican stronghold state is showing a new trend that could be worrisome to some local politicians.
Incumbent Republican Senator Deb Fischer is unexpectedly in a very tight re-election race, as she’s facing off against Dan Osborn, an independent candidate.
According to a new poll released by SurveyUSA and Split Ticket, Fischer is ahead of Osborn by only one point, with a 39% to 38% edge. The poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6%, was published Saturday and was a survey of nearly 1,300 registered voters.
This very narrow lead comes in a state that GOP nominee Donald Trump won by 19% during the 2020 presidential election.
Yet, the results of this new poll might suggest that Nebraska might not be as solidly Republican as it has been in the past. It might not prove to be so competitive at the presidential level, but it’s a concern for the GOP that a U.S. Senate race appears to be so close in this state.
The survey by SurveyUSA is not the only one that shows this trend, either.
A poll from YouGov conducted earlier in August showed a very slim 2% margin of 43% to 41%. And, in fact, a Change Research poll released back in November of 2023 showed that Osborn was actually ahead by 2 points, 40% to 38%.
The one outlier in all of these polls seems to be one from July conducted by Torchlight Strategies, which showed Fischer had a 26-point lead of 50% to 24%.
What this might show is that this race is very volatile, with multiple outcomes possible. That’s not exactly what Republicans would want to hear from a U.S. Senate race that they typically would think they’d have in the bag.
Osborn commented on the polling recently, saying:
“This is the fifth poll that shows this race to be essentially tied, and the data reflects what we’ve been hearing on the ground in Nebraska. As I travel across the state to hundreds of grassroots events, I hear from Democrats, Republicans and Independents who are fed up with politicians like Deb Fischer who work for party bosses and special interests while leaving regular Nebraskans behind.”
He attacked Fischer for not engaging in community outreach and debates with him, either.
Osborn is a labor leader and veteran of the U.S. Navy. His entire campaign has been focused on representing what he has termed “regular Nebraskans.”
It appears that strategy has worked, too, at least if you believe the polling.
To be this close in any poll with an incumbent senator with name recognition is quite a feat for an independent candidate. But, that of course doesn’t mean that he’s actually going to win when it really matters in November.
Control of the Senate is going to come down to the wire this November, and every seat matters. Republicans are hoping that the polling is wrong and that this seat that they normally could easily count on will come through for them in the end.
