The Trump administration faces unique opportunities to reshape U.S.-South Africa relations, leveraging economic ties and diplomatic strategies to influence change in the African nation.
At a Glance
- Trump’s presidency could significantly impact U.S.-South Africa relations
- The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) may be used as leverage
- South Africa’s foreign policy and economic ties with Russia and China are under scrutiny
- The U.S. aims to secure access to Africa’s critical minerals
- Potential reforms in South Africa could lead to increased U.S. support
Trump’s Influence on U.S.-South Africa Relations
As former President Donald Trump prepares to return to the White House, analysts are considering the implications for U.S.-South Africa relations. While Trump’s unpredictability is well-known, experts do not foresee problems for Africa under his presidency. However, significant changes may be on the horizon, particularly concerning trade agreements and foreign policy.
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), which provides duty-free access to U.S. markets for eligible African countries, could become a key bargaining chip. Trump may toughen conditions for AGOA, focusing on benefits for the United States. This shift could reshape South Africa’s economic landscape and force the nation to reevaluate its foreign policy positions.
Leveraging Economic Ties
The Trump administration’s approach to Africa is expected to be more transactional, with a focus on critical minerals access. This presents both challenges and opportunities for South Africa, which possesses significant mineral resources. The U.S. requirement for access to Africa’s critical minerals could lead to mutually beneficial partnerships, but may also come with strings attached.
“Africa is unlikely to be a top priority for Trump and, where it is, it’s likely to be transactional – for example, critical minerals access,” said Elizabeth Sidiropoulos, Chief Executive of the African Institute of International Affairs.
South Africa’s economic relations with the U.S., especially regarding AGOA, are uncertain. There may be new conditions for participation, with a focus on reciprocity and U.S. national security interests. This could push South Africa to reconsider its ties with countries like Russia, China, and Iran, which have been points of contention with the U.S.
Foreign Policy Pressure Points
Experts suggest the Trump administration may use its leverage to influence South Africa’s foreign policy decisions. Of particular concern are its relationships with Russia and China, as well as its stance on Middle East issues, especially regarding Israel. The U.S. could potentially exclude South Africa from AGOA if it does not align more closely with U.S. interests in these areas.
“South Africa should withdraw its spurious genocide case against Israel at the International Court of Justice (ICJ), for example, and should stop pointless pro-terror, anti-Israel gestures, such as its current attempt to rename the street in front of the U.S. consulate in Johannesburg after a notorious Palestinian airplane hijacker from the 1970s,” journalist Joel B. Pollak wrote.
Additionally, the upcoming G-20 summit in November 2025, set to be hosted by South Africa, could become another point of leverage. The U.S. could potentially boycott the event if South Africa focuses on anti-Israel issues, putting pressure on the nation to realign its diplomatic priorities.
Opportunities for Reform
A second Trump administration also presents opportunities for South Africa. The U.S. could support the country’s bid for the 2040 Summer Olympic Games if it commits to certain reforms, including suspending “Black Economic Empowerment” policies. This carrot-and-stick approach aims to encourage changes that align with U.S. interests while potentially benefiting South Africa’s economy and international standing.
