(PresidentialHill.com)- Democrat pollster Doug Schoen has a warning for his party. Prepare yourself for historic defeats in November.
Schoen has been around for a sufficient amount of time to be aware of what happens to the party in power when inflation and petrol prices spiral out of hand.
The only uncertainty is the magnitude of the losses.
Three recent developments imply Democrats’ already fragile political chances are deteriorating further and that the party could be on course for a historic midterm loss – worse than 1994 or 2010.
The first development is Biden’s approval rating.
Just one-third of registered voters (35%) approve of President Biden’s overall performance, while a majority (56%) disapprove, according to Quinnipiac polling, which represents a new low for the president’s popularity rating, which has historically been a predictor of his party’s midterm success.
Notably, Democrats have lost support among independents and Hispanics, two crucial constituencies in their 2020 coalition, as only 25% of Americans in each group approve of President Biden, with majorities disapproving.
In favoring party control of Congress, Republicans also hold an advantage. Republican control is preferred by nearly half (46%) of registered voters, while Democratic control is preferred by 41%. Independents (40 percent to 38 percent) and Hispanics favor GOP rule (41 percent-38 percent).
The second development is the economy.
Inflation has touched a 41-year high of 8.6% annually, the average gas price is $5 a gallon, and the stock market is in freefall. A recession is now imminent, according to many economists.
The administration has made a concerted effort to highlight promising macroeconomic factors, like as rising earnings and record low unemployment, but the average American, who is experiencing severe market drops and is dealing with rising costs, is not persuaded.
The third significant development of the week is the outcome of the California primary elections held on Tuesday, which saw a resounding rejection of progressive policies — particularly on criminal justice — in one of the most liberal states in the nation.
The most significant criticism of progressive crime policies came from San Francisco’s progressive district attorney Chesa Boudin, whose recall highlights the difficulties Democrats will have in communicating their positions on this topic in the future.
When considered collectively, the public’s growing discontent with the Biden administration, rising economic pessimism, and opposition to progressivism suggest that the Democratic Party may be on course to suffer one of the most significant midterm seat losses of any party in recent memory.