(PresidentialHill.com)- For the first time in more than 60 years, China announced this week that it has experienced a decline in population.
The country’s National Bureau of Statistics released a report that showed there were 9.56 million people born in China last year, while 10.41 million people died. The total population in the Communist country as of 2022 was 1.412 billion, which is a decrease of about 850,000 people from 2021.
Projections are showing a steep decline in population will continue in the coming years. In fact, by the end of the century, it’s projected that the population in China could be just one-third of what it is right now. That would mark one of the deepest historical declines, absent a major disease or war.
It’s also believed by some that China may be overstating the population in the country substantially. Last year, Yi Fuxian, who works for the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said that he believes the country’s population is closer to 1.28 billion.
He wrote in a piece that the country’s population started its decline back in 2018. In claiming that China is lying about its population, he said that the demographic numbers don’t match up with other unofficial and official data.
Either way, China is looking like it will continue to lose population in the coming years.
The Department of Economic and Social Affairs at the United Nations produces a report called the World Population Prospects. It has projected China’s population out to the year 2100.
The high variant is estimated to be 1.153 billion, while the medium variant is 766.67 million and the low variant is 487.93 million. Many people believe that the low variant is the one where China’s population will ultimately end up closest to.
Late in 2021, Xian Jiaotong University demographers estimated that the population in China could be cut in half in the next 45 years. That’s assuming that the country is able to maintain its Total Fertility Rate, which is 1.3. That number represents the average number of children for every female who is of age to be child-bearing.
Just last year, the TFR in China was 1.18, which was the lowest mark out of the 10 nations with the world’s highest populations.
For his part, Yi said he believes that the TFR for 2020 in China could’ve been as low as 0.9.
A major part of the reason for this change is the changing mindset of Chinese people. The Communist Youth League conducted a survey last year that found 44% of all Urban Chinese women who are between 18 and 26 years old don’t intent to ever get married.
That’s especially pertinent in China, because females in China who aren’t married can’t get the required permit they need to have a child.
Couples are also either deciding not to have children, or to have fewer children, due to pessimism in the country as well as the over economic decline that’s affecting their lives.